NHL First Round Predictions

The NHL playoffs start tonight, so it's about time to post my picks:

Eastern Conference
1. Montreal vs 8. Boston
This is a no-brainer. Montreal was 8-0 in the regular season vs Boston and they've manhandled the Bruins in the playoffs historically. Tim Thomas is absolutely brutal and Carey Price has lit it up since being named the starter at the trade deadline. This will be a short series. Habs in four.

2. Pittsburgh vs 7. Ottawa
I would not want to face Ottawa in the first round of the playoffs. This is a team who got off to one of the best starts in league history, but because of a lot of bad goaltending has slid all the way to the seventh seed. That said, the Senators still boast five 20-goal scorers and one of the best plus-minus rankings in the league. Their problem is that Gerber and Emery have not shown up this season, and as we've all seen in previous years bad goaltending is the biggest liability you can have entering the playoffs. Pittsburgh has Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes. He struggled this year against the Sens, so he will be the key to this series. If Fleury posts solid numbers, the Penguins take this easily. My gut says though that he will not, and this series will go deep with the Penguins taking it in seven.

3. Washington vs 6. Philadelphia
I've flip-flopped a great deal with this pick. The Caps have Alex Ovechkin, while the Flyers have six 20-goal scorers. Which is harder to stop? Originally I gave the edge to the Flyers. They're a more gritty team than the Caps and I could see Scott Hartnell making things very difficult for number eight. The problem with the Flyers is their defense. Philadelphia does not boast the most talented blue liners, nor do they possess great speed. This could spell trouble against the speedy Caps. So once again, I think this series comes down to goaltending. Do you see a theme here? Huet vs. Biron. Both have played well lately, though I would have to give the edge to Huet. Biron can be inconsistent, especially if he gets rattled in net. I think Huet has one series win in him, but that's it. Caps in seven.

4. New Jersey Devils vs 5. New York Rangers
Brodeur vs. Lundqvist. The old vs. the new. And according the Martin, the best vs. the weird. This series too will come down to goaltending. New York took all but the final game against New Jersey this year. This was a game that Jersey had to win to secure home ice advantage. In a sense, it was a playoff-type game for them, and Brodeur rose to the challenge. He's been money for many years, and it's hard to pick against one of the best goalies to play the game. I'm going to do just that however. Both goalies were great in the playoffs last year, but Lundqvist, I think, was slightly better. I like the Rangers' scoring options more, even if Jagr decides not to show up this year (as usual). I'll take the Rangers in six.


Western Conference
1. Detroit vs. 8. Nashville
Is anyone picking Nashville in this match-up? I'm pretty sure even the Predators faithful have opted out of playoff beards this year. Detroit was the best team in the league during the regular season. Nashville sports a goalie who loses 15 pounds of water weight during every start he makes. Detroit has far too much firepower for this series to even be interesting. I'll take Detroit in four.

2. San Jose vs. 7. Calgary
This match-up is actually a lot closer than many will give the Flames credit for. Kiprusoff has played decently over the last month, and Iginla looks fired up to erase some playoff daemons. When you look at some of the key match-ups between these two teams, they come out quite similar. Nabokov and Kiprusoff had similar numbers this season, with Nabokov having the edge. Each team had three 20-goal scorers, and each team has a superstar hoping to lead their team deep into the playoffs, in Iginla and Thornton. San Jose is heavily favoured, with many analysts having them win the cup. I agree with the analysts for the first round anyhow. San Jose's just too good of a team, on too hot of a roll to lose in the first round. San Jose takes it in six.

3. Anaheim vs. 6. Dallas
Anaheim was my cup pick last year and they did not disappoint. They're facing perennial first round losers in Dallas this season to kick off the playoffs. Once again we could analyze the match-ups between Giguere and Turco, or Getzlaf and Ribeiro, but I think this match-up is easy to call without doing all of that. Anaheim is the defending cup champs. This year's team is essentially identical to last year's. Sure, Selanne and Neidermayer are a year older, but so too are Getzlaf and Perry. Add to that the fact that Giguere has been one of the most dominant playoff goalies in the last fifteen years and you've got the recipe for a repeat. I think Anaheim's defense will control Dallas' offense each game this series. I'm taking Anaheim in six low scoring games.

4. Minnesota vs. 5. Colorado
This was another tough choice. Niklas Backstrom has been on a tear for the Wild over the last month and I think Colorado will have a tough time beating him. The Avs sport a pretty decent goalie as well in Jose Theodore. Theodore has been quite good over the last month. I think this match-up comes down to two factors: Peter Forsberg and Minnesota's defense. The Wild were a -22 on the season, and I like the wiley Avalanche veterans to exploit them. Peter Forsberg will play the role of the difference-maker in this series. I'm taking Colorado in seven tight games.


Cup Prediction:
I'm betting all my chips on Carey Price beating Boston, then New York handily. The second round match-up of Pittsburgh vs. Washington will be a long one, and I think the Habs will be able to exploit this and reach the cup finals.
In the West, Anaheim has a very tough road to the finals, first facing Dallas, then likely San Jose, followed by Detroit. It is not an easy path, but there's not a team better built for it in the playoffs. The playoffs are about grinding out wins in hard fought match-ups. They build character and momentum. By the time Anaheim reaches the cup final against Montreal, they will be on such a roll that neither Carey Price, nor the Habs powerplay, no matter how good either will be, will be able to stop them. Anaheim will repeat.