Raptors are in opposite position this year

There are many interesting match-ups to examine as we embark on the NBA playoffs. Will the Mavs win in what may be the most unfair 2 vs 7 match-up of all time? Will Ben Wallace's experience help Cleveland return to the finals? At this point it appears as though the Western Conference is anyone's to take, while the East is likely to be a two-team race. One match-up that I find quite interesting however is the 3 seed Orlando Magic vs the 6 seed Toronto Raptors.

Last year nobody predicted the Raptors would make the playoffs, let alone be the 3 seed. They were a surprise team which was lead by key acquisitions of role players like Anthony Parker and TJ Ford, the maturation of Jose Calderon, and by Chris Bosh upping his game to a higher level than anticipated.

Then they met New Jersey in the first round. New Jersey, the 6th seed who struggled mightily during the second half of the season looked as though they would be an easy victory for the streaking Raptors before the series began. Quickly however, it became apparent that the Nets playoff experience was more than the upstart Raptors could handle and the Nets took the series.

The Orlando Magic were a team that nobody picked to come out of the East. They were a team that many analysts identified as having potential, but nobody knew what they would bring to the table. They jumped quickly out of the gate and haven't looked back. Lead by the key acquisition of three-point threat Rashard Lewis, the maturation of Hedo Turkoglu, and by Dwight Howard bringing his game to the next level, the Magic enter the playoffs as the 3 seed facing a 6 seed who's been in their shoes and has the experience to guide them. And if that's not enough, the Raptors, like the Nets the year before have struggled down the stretch.
This formula seems a little too familiar.

Are the Orlando Magic this year's Toronto Raptors? And are the Toronto Raptors this year's New Jersey Nets? Last year SI.com predicted New Jersey to take the series in six. This year their prediction: Raptors in six.

Two to Grab: April 11

Each week I'll try to give you two fantasy players who deserve pick-up consideration in standard mixed leagues. This week's Two to Grab are Minnesota's Nick Blackburn and Oakland's Dana Eveland.

Nick Blackburn
Drafted in the 29th round in 2001, Nick Blackburn enters this season as Minnesota's fifth starter. With Francisco Liriano on a rehab assignment in AAA, Blackburn's rotation slot may be short-lived, depending on the severity of Kevin Slowey's injured biceps. For the time-being however, Blackburn is an interesting option as a FA in most leagues. So far this season, he's 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts and sports 11 K's versus only three walks. Blackburn is a control-type pitcher who typically tops out in the low 90's with his fastball. His repertoire includes five pitches which he can throw for strikes in any situation. He uses a curveball, slider and a changeup to compliment his two and four-seam fastballs to make them seem a few mph faster than they are. What's particularly interesting about Blackburn is that in his two starts so far this season, he's gotten stronger as the games have progressed. In an interview with Yahoo Sports, Blackburn stated: "My pitches usually get a little bit better as my legs wear down. I get better break on the ball. I'm always fine in the late innings." This is a common theme with breaking-ball pitchers. Often times their best starts will be on three days rest instead of the typical four or five days, as their bodies have not had as much time to recuperate. This often allows them to get more snap on their deliveries and makes their breaking pitches more effective.
As of now, Blackburn is scheduled to pitch on Sunday versus Kansas City. He may be a good pick-up if you're seeking a final-day boost in your win, K's, ERA or WHIP numbers in head-to-head leagues. It's uncertain how long he will remain in the rotation with Liriano set to return soon, but if Slowey misses any extended period of time, or proves ineffective early this season, you can be sure that Blackburn will be the first name called to take his rotation spot. And if his string of great starts continue, Kevin Slowey might find himself dueling for a rotation spot when he returns.

Dana Eveland
After yesterday's performance against the Blue Jays it's entirely possible that Dana Eveland is no longer an available free agent in your league. After all, Eveland has only given up one earned run in 13.1 innings, over two starts this season. He's struck out 13 and only walked four. Acquired by Oakland in the Dan Haren deal, Eveland will likely prove to be the biggest piece of that trade. He currently occupies Oakland's second spot in the rotation behind Joe Blanton. His pitching arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, a curveball, slider and a changeup.
One of the biggest reasons for picking up Eveland may be Billy Beane. Beane, Oakland's GM, has a knack for recognizing great young pitchers before they break out and trading for them. Dan Haren was one of these pitchers. He was acquired from St. Louis in the Mark Mulder deal along with Kiko Calero and Daric Barton (a first base prospect who is due to break out any time now). Eveland's 0.68 ERA has probably inspired a lot of casual fantasy players to pick him up, however he's not going to maintain that mark all season long. He's bound to hit a bump or two in his next few starts, and that may make him available once again. If that happens, grab him. You won't regret it.

Questions or comments? Post your reply, or email me at scoring.position@hotmail.com

NHL First Round Predictions

The NHL playoffs start tonight, so it's about time to post my picks:

Eastern Conference
1. Montreal vs 8. Boston
This is a no-brainer. Montreal was 8-0 in the regular season vs Boston and they've manhandled the Bruins in the playoffs historically. Tim Thomas is absolutely brutal and Carey Price has lit it up since being named the starter at the trade deadline. This will be a short series. Habs in four.

2. Pittsburgh vs 7. Ottawa
I would not want to face Ottawa in the first round of the playoffs. This is a team who got off to one of the best starts in league history, but because of a lot of bad goaltending has slid all the way to the seventh seed. That said, the Senators still boast five 20-goal scorers and one of the best plus-minus rankings in the league. Their problem is that Gerber and Emery have not shown up this season, and as we've all seen in previous years bad goaltending is the biggest liability you can have entering the playoffs. Pittsburgh has Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes. He struggled this year against the Sens, so he will be the key to this series. If Fleury posts solid numbers, the Penguins take this easily. My gut says though that he will not, and this series will go deep with the Penguins taking it in seven.

3. Washington vs 6. Philadelphia
I've flip-flopped a great deal with this pick. The Caps have Alex Ovechkin, while the Flyers have six 20-goal scorers. Which is harder to stop? Originally I gave the edge to the Flyers. They're a more gritty team than the Caps and I could see Scott Hartnell making things very difficult for number eight. The problem with the Flyers is their defense. Philadelphia does not boast the most talented blue liners, nor do they possess great speed. This could spell trouble against the speedy Caps. So once again, I think this series comes down to goaltending. Do you see a theme here? Huet vs. Biron. Both have played well lately, though I would have to give the edge to Huet. Biron can be inconsistent, especially if he gets rattled in net. I think Huet has one series win in him, but that's it. Caps in seven.

4. New Jersey Devils vs 5. New York Rangers
Brodeur vs. Lundqvist. The old vs. the new. And according the Martin, the best vs. the weird. This series too will come down to goaltending. New York took all but the final game against New Jersey this year. This was a game that Jersey had to win to secure home ice advantage. In a sense, it was a playoff-type game for them, and Brodeur rose to the challenge. He's been money for many years, and it's hard to pick against one of the best goalies to play the game. I'm going to do just that however. Both goalies were great in the playoffs last year, but Lundqvist, I think, was slightly better. I like the Rangers' scoring options more, even if Jagr decides not to show up this year (as usual). I'll take the Rangers in six.


Western Conference
1. Detroit vs. 8. Nashville
Is anyone picking Nashville in this match-up? I'm pretty sure even the Predators faithful have opted out of playoff beards this year. Detroit was the best team in the league during the regular season. Nashville sports a goalie who loses 15 pounds of water weight during every start he makes. Detroit has far too much firepower for this series to even be interesting. I'll take Detroit in four.

2. San Jose vs. 7. Calgary
This match-up is actually a lot closer than many will give the Flames credit for. Kiprusoff has played decently over the last month, and Iginla looks fired up to erase some playoff daemons. When you look at some of the key match-ups between these two teams, they come out quite similar. Nabokov and Kiprusoff had similar numbers this season, with Nabokov having the edge. Each team had three 20-goal scorers, and each team has a superstar hoping to lead their team deep into the playoffs, in Iginla and Thornton. San Jose is heavily favoured, with many analysts having them win the cup. I agree with the analysts for the first round anyhow. San Jose's just too good of a team, on too hot of a roll to lose in the first round. San Jose takes it in six.

3. Anaheim vs. 6. Dallas
Anaheim was my cup pick last year and they did not disappoint. They're facing perennial first round losers in Dallas this season to kick off the playoffs. Once again we could analyze the match-ups between Giguere and Turco, or Getzlaf and Ribeiro, but I think this match-up is easy to call without doing all of that. Anaheim is the defending cup champs. This year's team is essentially identical to last year's. Sure, Selanne and Neidermayer are a year older, but so too are Getzlaf and Perry. Add to that the fact that Giguere has been one of the most dominant playoff goalies in the last fifteen years and you've got the recipe for a repeat. I think Anaheim's defense will control Dallas' offense each game this series. I'm taking Anaheim in six low scoring games.

4. Minnesota vs. 5. Colorado
This was another tough choice. Niklas Backstrom has been on a tear for the Wild over the last month and I think Colorado will have a tough time beating him. The Avs sport a pretty decent goalie as well in Jose Theodore. Theodore has been quite good over the last month. I think this match-up comes down to two factors: Peter Forsberg and Minnesota's defense. The Wild were a -22 on the season, and I like the wiley Avalanche veterans to exploit them. Peter Forsberg will play the role of the difference-maker in this series. I'm taking Colorado in seven tight games.


Cup Prediction:
I'm betting all my chips on Carey Price beating Boston, then New York handily. The second round match-up of Pittsburgh vs. Washington will be a long one, and I think the Habs will be able to exploit this and reach the cup finals.
In the West, Anaheim has a very tough road to the finals, first facing Dallas, then likely San Jose, followed by Detroit. It is not an easy path, but there's not a team better built for it in the playoffs. The playoffs are about grinding out wins in hard fought match-ups. They build character and momentum. By the time Anaheim reaches the cup final against Montreal, they will be on such a roll that neither Carey Price, nor the Habs powerplay, no matter how good either will be, will be able to stop them. Anaheim will repeat.

MLB Fantasy Analysis Week 1

First off, the blog is back up and running. It's been a long while since the last post, but be sure to check back often now as there are going to be frequent updates.

Week ONE
So Week One of the baseball season has finally arrived--and gone. There were a lot of surprises including:
-Detroit is on a terrible losing streak and Baltimore is not currently dwelling at the bottom of the AL East.
-Kosuke Fukudome is actually living up to his contract so far, batting .458 with a hr, 6 rbi's and 2 sb's.
-Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard have 1 hr combined between them.
-Johnny Cueto had an unbelievable debut fanning 10 batters over seven, and giving up only a single hit (a hr to Arizona's Justin Upton). He followed up that start tonight with another great outing, striking out eight over 6.1 innings.
-The Blue Jays swept the Boston Red Sox in three games at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Some things however, were not so surprising, including:
-Both Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are dominating. Peavy has two wins in two starts, while Johan, in two starts with his new club, has two great performances on paper but with only one win to show for them.
-After throwing 240 innings + playoffs last year, C.C. Sabathia has struggled out of the gate with a 7.59 era in two starts.
-Rich Harden has made two amazing starts but will miss his next start with a strained lat muscle.
-The San Francisco Giants are at least as bad as advertised--if not worse, starting the season at 1-6, and scoring only 16 runs in those 7 games.

Fantasy Watch

Johnny Cueto
By now it's likely that Johnny Cueto has been added in virtually every fantasy league. I'm currently managing three Yahoo! leagues, but I was only able to add Cueto in one of them. Cueto has been on a lot of fantasy gurus' radar for many weeks now but Yahoo only added the flamethrower into the database the day before his first scheduled start. Standard Yahoo waiver time is two days, so for those of you who had the unfortunate luck of having a low waiver priority, you were probably out of luck in the Cueto sweepstakes.
Bottom Line: Get Cueto if you can. After his hot start and how much he's been pumped up by fantasy experts, he's probably going to garner a king's ransom. However, depending on your pitching depth, he may be worth it. Think Francisco Liriano, 2006, but hopefully minus the Tommy John surgery. A cheaper option may be Edison Volquez. If you're lucky enough to be in a league where he's still a free agent, pick him up now. He'll put up similar numbers to Cueto this season.

Alex Rios
He's currently batting .368 without a home run, however this is due to change. Rios is a stud. I recently saw an interview with Vernon Wells where he called Rios the strongest person on the team. That's right, Vernon Wells implied that Alex Rios is stronger than Frank Thomas. Now, it's unlikely we'll see Rios swinging a piece of rebar on the on deck circle any time soon, but it is likely that he will reach the 15 hr plateau by the all-star break at least. The last two years Rios has driven the ball in the first half of the season but his power has trailed off in the second half. I'm sure Rios and the Jay's coaching staff are aware of this, and hopefully new hitting coach Gary Denbo will address this as the season progresses. One thing appears certain though: Alex Rios will hit, and he will hit a ton.
Bottom Line: A .320 avg with 30 hrs is not out of reach by any means. If Rios continues to hit in the three spot, and Vernon Wells shows that he is completely recovered from shoulder surgery and returns to his 2006 form, Rios will have a monster year in the rbi department as well. Mark my words: Rios is a top 15 pick next season.

Matt Kemp
The time has arrived to deal for Matt Kemp. He's not hitting and he's splitting time with Juan Pierre, but that's exactly why you should try to swing a move for him. Kemp batted .342 in 98 games last year. He's currently struggling at the rate of a .176 avg but this will not continue. It's not uncommon to see talented hitters struggling out of the gate. Last season both Ichiro and Chone Figgins were terrible in their first few playing weeks, but both made up for it in big ways when they returned. Kemp is in the same situation.
Bottom Line: Kemp is not a 30 hr threat. But he will hit over .300, and likely well over by season's end. If you can pick him up without giving up much, do it. He's bound to break out within the next 5 to 10 days, and by then it will be too late to grab him cheap.


Closing Notes: Deal away C.C. Sabathia. Deal for Brett Myers. Pick up Jeff Keppinger.